Ecologists urge scientists and policymakers to study imminent ‘Super’ El Niño to prepare for the future
Worth reading — 1 past UPSC question on this theme (Prelims GS-1 2017).
2-minute summary
A collective of 188 Indian scientists, ecologists, and marine biologists have issued an urgent appeal to policymakers and researchers to study and prepare for an imminent 'Super' El Niño. With Pacific Ocean temperatures crossing anomalous thresholds of +2.6°C to projected highs of +4°C—higher than any time in the past 1,000 years based on coral core reconstructions—the upcoming phenomenon threatens devastating impacts on India's natural and agrarian systems. Experts highlight risks including widespread coral bleaching, catastrophic forest fires, severe stress on large rainforest trees and urban greenery, drought, and agricultural distress affecting farmers, fishers, and pastoralists. Unlike the previous major El Niño in 2024, this intense warming event hits ecosystems before they can fully recover. Scientists emphasize that documenting these ecological shifts in real-time is crucial for building long-term climate resilience and safeguarding ecosystems against cascading land and marine heatwaves.
Why it's in the news
Nearly 188 Indian scientists and ecologists published a joint 'Call to Action' urging immediate monitoring and research into an exceptionally intense 'Super' El Niño expected to severely impact India's monsoons, forests, marine life, and agrarian livelihoods.
Background and context
El Niño is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Typically occurring every 2 to 7 years, El Niño phases involve the warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which weakens trade winds and disrupts global weather patterns. In India, El Niño is historically associated with suppressed monsoon rainfall, prolonged droughts, and elevated surface temperatures. Its local impacts are often modulated by regional phenomena such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The unprecedented projected temperature anomalies of up to +4°C threaten vulnerable ecosystems—such as the Western Ghats' rainforests and marine coral reefs—which are already under stress from cumulative climate pressures and rapid anthropogenic warming.
International organisations
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO) — Monitors and issues global advisories on ENSO conditions, El Niño, and La Niña events and their planetary climatic consequences.
Previous UPSC questions on this theme
- Prelims GS-1 2017 — With reference to 'Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)' sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct? 1. IOD phenomenon is characterised by a difference in sea surface temperature between tropical Western Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. 2. An IOD phenomenon can influence an El Nino's impact on the monsoon. (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2
Mains practice: Examine the ecological and socio-economic implications of extreme climate anomalies like 'Super' El Niños on India's agricultural and forest ecosystems. What adaptation strategies are required?
Introduction:
An imminent 'Super' El Niño, with projected temperature anomalies of up to +4°C in the Pacific Ocean, poses severe threats to India's environmental stability, agrarian economy, and vulnerable biodiversity, requiring urgent proactive planning.
Body:
• Ecological Impacts: Extended droughts and extreme heatwaves accelerate coral bleaching and mortality, trigger wildfires, and push large rainforest trees in biodiversity hotspots like the Western Ghats past their physiological heat limits.
• Socio-Economic Distress: Cascading deficits in soil moisture, water storage, and crop health directly threaten the livelihoods of farmers, fishers, and pastoralists.
• Marine and Urban Vulnerability: Marine heatwaves threaten fisheries, while urban heat island effects severely stress urban tree cover.
• Adaptation and Policy Strategies:
- Establishing real-time scientific monitoring networks to document subtle ecological shifts.
- Strengthening ecosystem resilience by reducing existing local anthropogenic pressures on forests and wetlands.
- Climate-proofing agriculture through drought-resistant crop varieties, robust irrigation infrastructure, and enhanced early-warning systems.
Conclusion:
Proactive scientific documentation and aggressive ecosystem conservation during extreme climatic events are vital to transitioning India toward a climate-resilient future.
Prelims practice questions
Q1. Consider the following statements regarding El Niño: 1. It is characterized by the unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. 2. In India, El Niño events are typically associated with enhanced monsoon rainfall and cooler temperatures. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
- 1 only
- 2 only
- Both 1 and 2
- Neither 1 nor 2
Answer: A. Statement 1 is correct: El Niño involves warming in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Statement 2 is incorrect because El Niño in India typically suppresses monsoon rainfall, leading to delayed or deficient monsoons and higher temperatures.
Q2. With reference to the impacts of El Niño on India's environment, which of the following ecosystems are particularly vulnerable as highlighted by recent scientific studies?
- Temperate coniferous forests of Central India
- Mangrove forests in the Gangetic delta exclusively
- Coral reefs and tropical rainforests like the Western Ghats
- Alpine tundra ecosystems in the trans-Himalayas
Answer: C. Scientists and ecologists have highlighted that El Niño causes severe coral bleaching and mortality, as well as extreme heat stress on large rainforest trees in regions like the Western Ghats.
Q3. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), often mentioned in news regarding Indian weather, interacts with which of the following?
- Pacific Ocean El Niño conditions
- Antarctic Circumpolar Current
- Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
- Arctic Sea Ice extent
Answer: A. Within the Indian Ocean, the IOD interacts with Pacific-origin climatic systems like El Niño and can either dampen or amplify El Niño's impact on the Indian subcontinent.
Revision flashcards
- What is El Niño? A periodic climatic event triggered by changed ocean circulation and warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean, occurring every 2-7 years.
- What are the typical impacts of El Niño on India? It is typically associated with higher temperatures, suppressed rainfall, and a delayed or reduced southwest monsoon.
- How does El Niño impact marine ecosystems? It triggers marine heatwaves leading to widespread coral bleaching and massive mortality.
- What regional system interacts with El Niño within the Indian Ocean? The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can amplify or dampen El Niño's regional climatic effects.
- Why are large rainforest trees vulnerable during extreme El Niño events? Because they are often operating near their physiological heat tolerance limits and are highly susceptible to extended droughts and depleted soil moisture.